The following is an analysis of the Summary section of
the January 2001 CBO Appendix E. The
text is *RED are comments included by the
website host.
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The Budget and Economic
Outlook: Fiscal Years 2002-2011 |
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Appendix E
CBO's Economic Projections for 2001 Through 2011
Year-by-year economic projections for
2001 through 2011 are shown in the accompanying tables (by calendar year in Table
E-1 and by fiscal year in Table
E-2). The Congressional Budget Office did not try to explicitly incorporate
cyclical recessions and recoveries into its projections for years after 2002.
Instead, the projected values shown here for 2003 through 2011 reflect CBO's
assessment of average values for that period--which take into account potential
ups and downs in the business cycle.
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Table E-1. |
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Estimated |
Forecast |
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Projected |
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2001 |
2002 |
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2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
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Nominal GDP (Billions of dollars) |
9,974 |
|
10,446 |
11,029 |
|
11,623 |
12,206 |
12,809 |
13,439 |
14,100 |
14,796 |
15,525 |
16,308 |
17,132 |
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Nominal GDP (Percentage change) |
7.3 |
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4.7 |
5.6 |
|
5.4 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
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Real GDP (Percentage change) |
5.1 |
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2.4 |
3.4 |
|
3.3 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
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GDP Price Index (Percentage change) |
2.1 |
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2.3 |
2.1 |
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2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
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Consumer Price Indexa (Percentage change) |
3.4 |
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2.8 |
2.8 |
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2.7 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
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Unemployment Rate (Percent) |
4.0 |
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4.4 |
4.5 |
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4.5 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
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Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate (Percent) |
5.8 |
|
4.8 |
4.9 |
|
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
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Ten-Year Treasury Note Rate (Percent) |
6.0 |
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4.9 |
5.3 |
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5.5 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
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Tax Bases (Billions of dollars) |
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Corporate profitsb |
934 |
|
929 |
940 |
|
972 |
1,013 |
1,048 |
1,085 |
1,127 |
1,184 |
1,240 |
1,308 |
1,374 |
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Wages and salaries |
4,770 |
|
5,031 |
5,319 |
|
5,605 |
5,883 |
6,169 |
6,468 |
6,782 |
7,111 |
7,456 |
7,827 |
8,217 |
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Tax Bases (Percentage of GDP) |
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Corporate profitsb |
9.4 |
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8.9 |
8.5 |
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8.4 |
8.3 |
8.2 |
8.1 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
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Wages and salaries |
47.8 |
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48.2 |
48.2 |
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48.2 |
48.2 |
48.2 |
48.1 |
48.1 |
48.1 |
48.0 |
48.0 |
48.0 |
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SOURCES: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Board. |
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NOTE: Percentage changes are year over year. |
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a. The consumer price index for all urban consumers. |
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b. Corporate profits are book profits. |
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Table E-2. |
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Actual |
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Forecast |
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Projected |
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|
2001 |
2002 |
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2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
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Nominal GDP (Billions of dollars) |
9,828 |
|
10,319 |
10,880 |
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11,477 |
12,059 |
12,656 |
13,279 |
13,932 |
14,619 |
15,338 |
16,109 |
16,922 |
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Nominal GDP (Percentage change) |
7.4 |
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5.0 |
5.4 |
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5.5 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
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Real GDP (Percentage change) |
5.4 |
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2.7 |
3.2 |
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3.4 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
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GDP Price Index (Percentage change) |
1.9 |
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2.3 |
2.2 |
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2.1 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
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Consumer Price Indexa (Percentage change) |
3.2 |
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2.9 |
2.8 |
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2.8 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
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Unemployment Rate (Percent) |
4.0 |
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4.3 |
4.5 |
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4.5 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
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Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate (Percent) |
5.6 |
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5.2 |
4.8 |
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5.1 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
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Ten-Year Treasury Note Rate (Percent) |
6.2 |
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5.1 |
5.1 |
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5.5 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
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Tax Bases (Billions of dollars) |
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Corporate profitsb |
920 |
|
927 |
935 |
|
962 |
1,004 |
1,039 |
1,076 |
1,115 |
1,170 |
1,225 |
1,290 |
1,358 |
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Wages and salaries |
4,696 |
|
4,965 |
5,246 |
|
5,535 |
5,813 |
6,097 |
6,392 |
6,702 |
7,027 |
7,368 |
7,733 |
8,118 |
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Tax Bases (Percentage of GDP) |
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Corporate profitsb |
9.4 |
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9.0 |
8.6 |
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8.4 |
8.3 |
8.2 |
8.1 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
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Wages and salaries |
47.8 |
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48.1 |
48.2 |
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48.2 |
48.2 |
48.2 |
48.1 |
48.1 |
48.1 |
48.0 |
48.0 |
48.0 |
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SOURCES: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Board. |
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NOTE: Percentage changes are year over year. |
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a. The consumer price index for all urban consumers. |
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b. Corporate profits are book profits. |
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