The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2002-2011

The following is an analysis of the Summary section of the January 2001 CBO Appendix F. The text is *RED are comments included by the website host.

The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2002-2011
January 2001
Section 13 of 15

Appendix F

Historical Budget Data

This appendix provides historical data for revenues, outlays, and the deficit or surplus. Estimates of the standardized-budget deficit or surplus and its revenue and outlay components for fiscal years 1961 through 2000 are reported in Tables F-1 through F-3, along with estimates of potential gross domestic product (GDP), actual GDP, and the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). The standardized-budget measure and its components also are shown as a percentage of potential GDP.

The change in the standardized-budget deficit or surplus is a commonly used measure of the short-term impact of fiscal policy on aggregate demand.⁽¹⁾ The standardized-budget deficit, which is often called the structural deficit, excludes the effects on revenues and outlays of cyclical fluctuations in output and unemployment and makes other adjustments. Historical estimates for standardized-budget revenues, outlays, and the deficit or surplus have been revised.

Budget data consistent with the projections in Chapters 1, 3, and 4 are available for fiscal years 1962 through 2000 and are reported in Tables F-4 through F-13. The data are shown both in nominal dollars and as a percentage of GDP. Data for 2000 come from the Department of the Treasury, Final Monthly Treasury Statement (October 2000), and the Office of Management and Budget.

Federal revenues, outlays, the deficit or surplus, and debt held by the public are shown in Tables F-4 and F-5. Revenues, outlays, and the deficit or surplus have both on-budget and off-budget components. Social Security receipts and outlays were placed off-budget by the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985; the Postal Service was moved off-budget four years later by the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989.

The major sources of federal revenues (including off-budget revenues) are presented in Tables F-6 and F-7. Social insurance taxes include payments by employers and employees for Social Security, Medicare, Railroad Retirement, and unemployment insurance, as well as pension contributions by federal workers. Excise taxes are levied on certain products and services, such as gasoline, alcoholic beverages, and air travel. Miscellaneous receipts consist of deposits of earnings by the Federal Reserve System and numerous fees and charges.

Total outlays for major spending categories are shown in Tables F-8 and F-9. (Those totals include both on- and off-budget outlays.) To compare historical outlays with the projections in Chapters 1, 3, and 4, the historical data have been divided into the same categories of spending as the projections. Spending controlled by the appropriation process is classified as discretionary. Tables F-10 and F-11 divide discretionary spending into its defense, international, and domestic components. Entitlements and other mandatory spending include programs whose spending is governed by laws that set requirements for eligibility. Additional detail on entitlement programs is shown in Tables F-12 and F-13. Net interest is identical to the budget function of the same name (function 900). Offsetting receipts include the federal government's contribution to retirement programs for its employees, fees and charges such as Medicare premiums, and receipts from the use of federally controlled land and offshore territory.

Table F-1. Deficits, Surpluses, Debt, and Related Series, Fiscal Years 1961-2000
	In Billions of Dollars			As a Percentage of GDP					NAIRU^d (Percent)
	Deficit (-) or Surplus	Standardized- Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus^a	Debt Held by the Public	Deficit (-) or Surplus	Standardized- Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus^a,b	Debt Held by the Public	GDP (Billions of dollars)
	Deficit (-) or Surplus	Standardized- Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus^a	Debt Held by the Public	Deficit (-) or Surplus	Standardized- Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus^a,b	Debt Held by the Public	Actual^c	Potential

1961	-3	3	238	-0.6	0.6	44.9	531	546	5.5
1962	-7	-4	248	-1.3	-0.7	43.6	569	575	5.5
1963	-5	-4	254	-0.8	-0.6	42.3	600	606	5.5
1964	-6	-6	257	-0.9	-0.9	40.0	642	638	5.6
1965	-1	-4	261	-0.2	-0.6	37.9	688	676	5.6

1966	-4	-13	264	-0.5	-1.8	34.8	757	720	5.7
1967	-9	-20	267	-1.1	-2.6	32.8	812	776	5.8
1968	-25	-30	290	-2.9	-3.5	33.3	870	840	5.8
1969	3	-10	278	0.3	-1.1	29.3	949	915	5.8
1970	-3	-8	283	-0.3	-0.8	27.9	1,014	1,002	5.9

1971	-23	-12	303	-2.1	-1.1	28.0	1,082	1,090	5.9
1972	-23	-19	322	-2.0	-1.6	27.4	1,178	1,179	6.0
1973	-15	-20	341	-1.1	-1.6	26.0	1,314	1,274	6.1
1974	-6	1	344	-0.4	0.1	23.8	1,442	1,416	6.2
1975	-53	-2	395	-3.4	-0.2	25.3	1,559	1,616	6.2

1976	-74	-36	477	-4.2	-2.0	27.5	1,736	1,787	6.2
1977	-54	-20	549	-2.7	-1.0	27.8	1,975	2,001	6.2
1978	-59	-31	607	-2.7	-1.4	27.4	2,219	2,213	6.3
1979	-41	-15	640	-1.6	-0.6	25.6	2,505	2,472	6.3
1980	-74	-15	712	-2.7	-0.5	26.1	2,732	2,772	6.2

1981	-79	-17	789	-2.6	-0.5	25.8	3,060	3,121	6.2
1982	-128	-52	925	-4.0	-1.5	28.6	3,231	3,425	6.1
1983	-208	-120	1,137	-6.0	-3.3	33.0	3,442	3,673	6.1
1984	-185	-144	1,307	-4.8	-3.7	34.0	3,847	3,922	6.1
1985	-212	-177	1,507	-5.1	-4.2	36.4	4,142	4,179	6.0

1986	-221	-212	1,741	-5.0	-4.8	39.6	4,398	4,421	6.0
1987	-150	-155	1,890	-3.2	-3.3	40.6	4,654	4,691	6.0
1988	-155	-127	2,052	-3.1	-2.5	40.9	5,017	4,999	5.9
1989	-152	-115	2,191	-2.8	-2.1	40.5	5,407	5,351	5.9
1990	-221	-119	2,412	-3.9	-2.1	42.0	5,738	5,715	5.9

1991	-269	-151	2,689	-4.5	-2.5	45.4	5,928	6,098	5.8
1992	-290	-184	3,000	-4.7	-2.9	48.2	6,222	6,416	5.7
1993	-255	-181	3,249	-3.9	-2.7	49.5	6,561	6,731	5.6
1994	-203	-138	3,433	-2.9	-2.0	49.4	6,949	7,055	5.4
1995	-164	-136	3,605	-2.2	-1.8	49.2	7,323	7,404	5.3

1996	-108	-89	3,735	-1.4	-1.1	48.5	7,700	7,777	5.2
1997	-22	-56	3,773	-0.3	-0.7	46.0	8,194	8,186	5.2
1998	69	-18	3,722	0.8	-0.2	42.9	8,666	8,589	5.2
1999	124	20	3,633	1.4	0.2	39.7	9,153	9,026	5.2
2000	236	106	3,410	2.4	1.1	34.7	9,828	9,532	5.2

SOURCES: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
a. Excludes deposit insurance, receipts from auctions of the electromagnetic spectrum, timing adjustments, asset sales, the inflation component of interest payments, capital gains tax revenues, and contributions from allied nations for Operation Desert Storm (which were received in 1991 and 1992).
b. The standardized-budget deficit or surplus is shown as a percentage of potential GDP.
c. Actual GDP numbers by fiscal year are calculated from quarterly national income and product account numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
d. The NAIRU is the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment. It is the benchmark for computing potential GDP.

Table F-2. Standardized-Budget Deficit or Surplus and Related Series, Fiscal Years 1961-2000 (In billions of dollars)
	Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus	Cyclical Adjustment^a	Other Adjustments^b	Standardized
	Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus	Cyclical Adjustment^a	Other Adjustments^b	Deficit (-) or Surplus	Revenues	Outlays

1961	-3	6	1	3	98	94
1962	-7	2	1	-4	100	104
1963	-5	2	-1	-4	106	110
1964	-6	-1	2	-6	109	115
1965	-1	-4	2	-4	111	115

1966	-4	-13	3	-13	116	130
1967	-9	-12	1	-20	133	153
1968	-25	-11	7	-30	141	171
1969	3	-14	1	-10	164	173
1970	-3	-6	1	-8	176	184

1971	-23	3	8	-12	185	197
1972	-23	*	5	-19	201	220
1973	-15	-14	9	-20	214	234
1974	-6	-10	17	1	250	249
1975	-53	20	31	-2	295	298

1976	-74	24	14	-36	308	344
1977	-54	12	22	-20	358	378
1978	-59	-3	31	-31	390	421
1979	-41	-13	38	-15	444	460
1980	-74	13	46	-15	517	532

1981	-79	22	40	-17	605	622
1982	-128	53	23	-52	646	699
1983	-208	79	8	-120	644	765
1984	-185	29	12	-144	671	815
1985	-212	15	20	-177	722	899

1986	-221	9	*	-212	748	960
1987	-150	10	-15	-155	811	966
1988	-155	-7	36	-127	870	997
1989	-152	-18	55	-115	939	1,054
1990	-221	-8	111	-119	993	1,112

1991	-269	46	73	-151	1,065	1,216
1992	-290	68	39	-184	1,124	1,308
1993	-255	60	14	-181	1,172	1,352
1994	-203	38	28	-138	1,254	1,391
1995	-164	22	6	-136	1,334	1,471

1996	-108	23	-5	-89	1,421	1,510
1997	-22	-3	-32	-56	1,508	1,564
1998	69	-28	-58	-18	1,613	1,630
1999	124	-45	-59	20	1,688	1,667
2000	236	-96	-34	106	1,821	1,716

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
NOTE: * = between -$500 million and $500 million.
a. The cyclical adjustment is positive when cyclical conditions are temporarily depressing revenues and raising outlays.
b. Consists of deposit insurance, receipts from auctions of the electromagnetic spectrum, timing adjustments, asset sales, adjustments for certain changes in the amount of taxes overwithheld, adjustments for temporary tax changes, the inflation component of federal interest payments, tax receipts from capital gains, and contributions from allied nations for Operation Desert Storm (which were received in 1991 and 1992).

Table F-3. Standardized-Budget Deficit or Surplus and Related Series, Fiscal Years 1961-2000 (As a percentage of potential GDP)
	Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus^a	Cyclical Adjustment^b	Other Adjustments^c	Standardized
	Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus^a	Cyclical Adjustment^b	Other Adjustments^c	Deficit (-) or Surplus	Revenues	Outlays

1961	-0.6	1.0	0.1	0.6	17.9	17.3
1962	-1.3	0.4	0.2	-0.7	17.3	18.0
1963	-0.8	0.3	-0.1	-0.6	17.5	18.1
1964	-0.9	-0.2	0.2	-0.9	17.1	18.0
1965	-0.2	-0.7	0.3	-0.6	16.4	17.0

1966	-0.5	-1.8	0.4	-1.8	16.2	18.0
1967	-1.1	-1.6	0.1	-2.6	17.1	19.7
1968	-2.9	-1.3	0.8	-3.5	16.8	20.3
1969	0.3	-1.5	0.1	-1.1	17.9	19.0
1970	-0.3	-0.6	0.1	-0.8	17.6	18.4

1971	-2.1	0.2	0.8	-1.1	17.0	18.1
1972	-2.0	*	0.4	-1.6	17.0	18.6
1973	-1.1	-1.1	0.7	-1.6	16.8	18.4
1974	-0.4	-0.7	1.2	0.1	17.7	17.6
1975	-3.4	1.2	1.9	-0.2	18.3	18.4

1976	-4.2	1.3	0.8	-2.0	17.3	19.3
1977	-2.7	0.6	1.1	-1.0	17.9	18.9
1978	-2.7	-0.1	1.4	-1.4	17.6	19.0
1979	-1.6	-0.5	1.5	-0.6	18.0	18.6
1980	-2.7	0.5	1.6	-0.5	18.6	19.2

1981	-2.6	0.7	1.3	-0.5	19.4	19.9
1982	-4.0	1.6	0.7	-1.5	18.9	20.4
1983	-6.0	2.2	0.2	-3.3	17.5	20.8
1984	-4.8	0.7	0.3	-3.7	17.1	20.8
1985	-5.1	0.4	0.5	-4.2	17.3	21.5

1986	-5.0	0.2	*	-4.8	16.9	21.7
1987	-3.2	0.2	-0.3	-3.3	17.3	20.6
1988	-3.1	-0.1	0.7	-2.5	17.4	19.9
1989	-2.8	-0.3	1.0	-2.1	17.5	19.7
1990	-3.9	-0.1	1.9	-2.1	17.4	19.5

1991	-4.5	0.7	1.2	-2.5	17.5	19.9
1992	-4.7	1.1	0.6	-2.9	17.5	20.4
1993	-3.9	0.9	0.2	-2.7	17.4	20.1
1994	-2.9	0.5	0.4	-2.0	17.8	19.7
1995	-2.2	0.3	0.1	-1.8	18.0	19.9

1996	-1.4	0.3	-0.1	-1.1	18.3	19.4
1997	-0.3	*	-0.4	-0.7	18.4	19.1
1998	0.8	-0.3	-0.7	-0.2	18.8	19.0
1999	1.4	-0.5	-0.7	0.2	18.7	18.5
2000	2.4	-1.0	-0.4	1.1	19.1	18.0

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
NOTE: * = between -0.05 percent and 0.05 percent.
a. The budget deficit or surplus is shown as a percentage of actual GDP.
b. The cyclical adjustment is positive when cyclical conditions are temporarily depressing revenues and raising outlays.
c. Consists of deposit insurance, receipts from auctions of the electromagnetic spectrum, timing adjustments, asset sales, adjustments for certain changes in the amount of taxes overwithheld, adjustments for temporary tax changes, the inflation component of federal interest payments, tax receipts from capital gains, and contributions from allied nations for Operation Desert Storm (which were received in 1991 and 1992).

Table F-4. Revenues, Outlays, Deficits, Surpluses, and Debt Held by the Public, Fiscal Years 1962-2000 (In billions of dollars)
	Revenues	Outlays	Deficit (-) or Surplus				Debt Held by the Public^b
	Revenues	Outlays	On-Budget^a	Social Security	Postal Service^a	Total	Debt Held by the Public^b

1962	99.7	106.8	-5.9	-1.3	n.a.	-7.1	248.0
1963	106.6	111.3	-4.0	-0.8	n.a.	-4.8	254.0
1964	112.6	118.5	-6.5	0.6	n.a.	-5.9	256.8
1965	116.8	118.2	-1.6	0.2	n.a.	-1.4	260.8

1966	130.8	134.5	-3.1	-0.6	n.a.	-3.7	263.7
1967	148.8	157.5	-12.6	4.0	n.a.	-8.6	266.6
1968	153.0	178.1	-27.7	2.6	n.a.	-25.2	289.5
1969	186.9	183.6	-0.5	3.7	n.a.	3.2	278.1
1970	192.8	195.6	-8.7	5.9	n.a.	-2.8	283.2

1971	187.1	210.2	-26.1	3.0	n.a.	-23.0	303.0
1972	207.3	230.7	-26.4	3.0	n.a.	-23.4	322.4
1973	230.8	245.7	-15.4	0.5	n.a.	-14.9	340.9
1974	263.2	269.4	-8.0	1.8	n.a.	-6.1	343.7
1975	279.1	332.3	-55.3	2.0	n.a.	-53.2	394.7

1976	298.1	371.8	-70.5	-3.2	n.a.	-73.7	477.4
1977	355.6	409.2	-49.8	-3.9	n.a.	-53.7	549.1
1978	399.6	458.7	-54.9	-4.3	n.a.	-59.2	607.1
1979	463.3	504.0	-38.7	-2.0	n.a.	-40.7	640.3
1980	517.1	590.9	-72.7	-1.1	n.a.	-73.8	711.9

1981	599.3	678.2	-74.0	-5.0	n.a.	-79.0	789.4
1982	617.8	745.8	-120.1	-7.9	n.a.	-128.0	924.6
1983	600.6	808.4	-208.0	0.2	n.a.	-207.8	1,137.3
1984	666.5	851.9	-185.7	0.3	n.a.	-185.4	1,307.0
1985	734.1	946.4	-221.7	9.4	n.a.	-212.3	1,507.4

1986	769.2	990.5	-238.0	16.7	n.a.	-221.2	1,740.8
1987	854.4	1,004.1	-169.3	19.6	n.a.	-149.8	1,889.9
1988	909.3	1,064.5	-194.0	38.8	n.a.	-155.2	2,051.8
1989	991.2	1,143.7	-205.2	52.4	0.3	-152.5	2,191.0
1990	1,032.0	1,253.2	-277.8	58.2	-1.6	-221.2	2,411.8

1991	1,055.0	1,324.4	-321.6	53.5	-1.3	-269.4	2,689.3
1992	1,091.3	1,381.7	-340.5	50.7	-0.7	-290.4	3,000.1
1993	1,154.4	1,409.5	-300.5	46.8	-1.4	-255.1	3,248.8
1994	1,258.6	1,461.9	-258.9	56.8	-1.1	-203.3	3,433.4
1995	1,351.8	1,515.8	-226.4	60.4	2.0	-164.0	3,604.8

1996	1,453.1	1,560.6	-174.1	66.4	0.2	-107.5	3,734.5
1997	1,579.3	1,601.3	-103.4	81.3	*	-22.0	3,772.8
1998	1,721.8	1,652.6	-30.0	99.0	0.2	69.2	3,721.6
1999	1,827.5	1,703.0	0.7	124.7	-1.0	124.4	3,632.9
2000	2,025.2	1,789.0	86.4	151.8	-2.0	236.2	3,410.1

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
NOTE: n.a. = not applicable; * = less than $500 million.
a. In fiscal years 1962 through 1988, the Postal Service was on-budget and included in the on-budget total.
b. End of year.

Table F-5. Revenues, Outlays, Deficits, Surpluses, and Debt Held by the Public, Fiscal Years 1962-2000 (As a percentage of GDP)
	Revenues	Outlays	Deficit (-) or Surplus				Debt Held by the Public^b
	Revenues	Outlays	On-Budget^a	Social Security	Postal Service^a	Total	Debt Held by the Public^b

1962	17.5	18.8	-1.0	-0.2	n.a.	-1.3	43.6
1963	17.8	18.5	-0.7	-0.1	n.a.	-0.8	42.3
1964	17.5	18.5	-1.0	0.1	n.a.	-0.9	40.0
1965	17.0	17.2	-0.2	*	n.a.	-0.2	37.9

1966	17.3	17.8	-0.4	-0.1	n.a.	-0.5	34.8
1967	18.3	19.4	-1.6	0.5	n.a.	-1.1	32.8
1968	17.6	20.5	-3.2	0.3	n.a.	-2.9	33.3
1969	19.7	19.3	-0.1	0.4	n.a.	0.3	29.3
1970	19.0	19.3	-0.9	0.6	n.a.	-0.3	27.9

1971	17.3	19.4	-2.4	0.3	n.a.	-2.1	28.0
1972	17.6	19.6	-2.2	0.3	n.a.	-2.0	27.4
1973	17.6	18.7	-1.2	*	n.a.	-1.1	26.0
1974	18.3	18.7	-0.6	0.1	n.a.	-0.4	23.8
1975	17.9	21.3	-3.5	0.1	n.a.	-3.4	25.3

1976	17.2	21.4	-4.1	-0.2	n.a.	-4.2	27.5
1977	18.0	20.7	-2.5	-0.2	n.a.	-2.7	27.8
1978	18.0	20.7	-2.5	-0.2	n.a.	-2.7	27.4
1979	18.5	20.1	-1.5	-0.1	n.a.	-1.6	25.6
1980	18.9	21.6	-2.7	*	n.a.	-2.7	26.1

1981	19.6	22.2	-2.4	-0.2	n.a.	-2.6	25.8
1982	19.1	23.1	-3.7	-0.2	n.a.	-4.0	28.6
1983	17.4	23.5	-6.0	*	n.a.	-6.0	33.0
1984	17.3	22.1	-4.8	*	n.a.	-4.8	34.0
1985	17.7	22.9	-5.4	0.2	n.a.	-5.1	36.4

1986	17.5	22.5	-5.4	0.4	n.a.	-5.0	39.6
1987	18.4	21.6	-3.6	0.4	n.a.	-3.2	40.6
1988	18.1	21.2	-3.9	0.8	n.a.	-3.1	40.9
1989	18.3	21.2	-3.8	1.0	*	-2.8	40.5
1990	18.0	21.8	-4.8	1.0	*	-3.9	42.0

1991	17.8	22.3	-5.4	0.9	*	-4.5	45.4
1992	17.5	22.2	-5.5	0.8	*	-4.7	48.2
1993	17.6	21.5	-4.6	0.7	*	-3.9	49.5
1994	18.1	21.0	-3.7	0.8	*	-2.9	49.4
1995	18.5	20.7	-3.1	0.8	*	-2.2	49.2

1996	18.9	20.3	-2.3	0.9	*	-1.4	48.5
1997	19.3	19.5	-1.3	1.0	*	-0.3	46.0
1998	19.9	19.1	-0.3	1.1	*	0.8	42.9
1999	20.0	18.6	*	1.4	*	1.4	39.7
2000	20.6	18.2	0.9	1.5	*	2.4	34.7

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
NOTE: n.a. = not applicable; * = less than 0.05 percent.
a. In fiscal years 1962 through 1988, the Postal Service was on-budget and included in the on-budget total.
b. End of year.

Table F-6. Revenues by Major Source, Fiscal Years 1962-2000 (In billions of dollars)
	Individual Income Taxes	Corporate Income Taxes	Social Insurance Taxes	Excise Taxes	Estate and Gift Taxes	Customs Duties	Miscellaneous Receipts	Total Revenues

1962	45.6	20.5	17.0	12.5	2.0	1.1	0.8	99.7
1963	47.6	21.6	19.8	13.2	2.2	1.2	1.0	106.6
1964	48.7	23.5	22.0	13.7	2.4	1.3	1.1	112.6
1965	48.8	25.5	22.2	14.6	2.7	1.4	1.6	116.8

1966	55.4	30.1	25.5	13.1	3.1	1.8	1.9	130.8
1967	61.5	34.0	32.6	13.7	3.0	1.9	2.1	148.8
1968	68.7	28.7	33.9	14.1	3.1	2.0	2.5	153.0
1969	87.2	36.7	39.0	15.2